Grand Prairie, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

281
FXUS64 KFWD 161033
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms (15-25% chance) are expected again across
  portions of North Central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening.

- A tropical wave is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms
  across much of eastern Texas Friday and Saturday.

- For many, the upcoming weekend and next week will be the
  hottest of the summer so far, with highs in the mid to upper 90s
  and feels like temperatures ranging from 100 to 109.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/
/Wednesday Through Thursday Night/

...Wednesday and Wednesday Night...

Persistent southerly winds continue to bring rich boundary layer
moisture from the Gulf. As such, there may be periods of
cloudiness this morning, primarily across Central Texas before
skies clear by late Wednesday morning. Short term guidance all
continues to resolve a remnant 500 hPa vort max in western Texas
which will slowly drift to the northeast over the course of the
day. This will provide subtle, yet sufficient forcing for ascent
across portions of North Central Texas for isolated thunderstorms
to develop during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening
hours. As with all summertime thunderstorms, there will be the
risk for gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Convection resolved by both CAMs and global models suggest 15-25%
coverage, primarily north of I-20 and west of I-35. Any storms
that are able to develop should diminish with sunset.

Regardless of whether you see rain tomorrow or not, temperatures
should still remain slightly below average, with highs in the low
to mid-90s. Lows at night will be in the 70s.

...Thursday and Thursday Night...

Weak upper-level ridging will begin to build into the southern
Great Plains by Thursday, generally promoting clear, dry and hot
conditions across the area. However, there will be a tropical wave
in the northern Gulf moving towards the west. Weak forcing for
ascent associated with this disturbance concurrent with afternoon
temperatures near the convective temp will support stray to
isolated (10-20% chance) showers or thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours. Any storm that is able to develop
should remain southeast of a line from Temple to Palestine.

Thursday will be the start of a warming trend heading into the
weekend for most. Highs will be near climatology across much of
North and Northeast Texas, ranging from the mid to upper-90s.
Slightly below average temperatures are still expected across
Central Texas with highs in the low 90s.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/
/Friday through Tuesday/

...Friday and Saturday...

The Northern Gulf tropical wave will weaken as it moves into
eastern Texas and western Louisiana heading into this upcoming
weekend. Nonetheless, scattered thunderstorms are expected in
association with this disturbance across East Texas each afternoon
Friday and Saturday, with higher rain chances (30-40%) on Friday.
Any storms that develop look to be east of the I-35 corridor at
this time. Storm coverage will also be sparser (10-20%) across
Northeast Texas where moisture will be slightly lower, and forcing
for ascent will be weaker than locations further to the south.

Clouds and potential rain from this disturbance have introduced
some uncertainty with high temperatures across the region Friday
and Saturday. In general, the most likely scenario will be
reminiscent of Thursday, with highs in the upper 90s across North
and Northeast Texas, and highs in the low 90s across Central and
East-Central Texas. Should storms extend further northwest than
expected, or coverage be higher than anticipated, high
temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than this.

...Sunday through Tuesday...

Upper-level ridging will amplify across the central CONUS by the
end of this weekend and into next week. This will promote
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the region, with
triple digit heat possible in the Big Country. Dew points in the
low to mid 70s will result in peak heat indices of 100 to 109
degrees, particularly across East Texas. As of now, there are no
precipitation chances during this timeframe. However, medium range
guidance has a signal for a weak tropical wave to linger over
Texas. Depending on the thermodynamic profile of the environment
next week and the exact placement and strength of this
disturbance, low-end precipitation chances may need to be added
for the potential of isolated afternoon convection, primarily
across central Texas. Look for potential updates to this with
subsequent forecast issuances throughout the rest of the week.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs continue to spread from Central Texas towards the D10
TRACON. Coverage and exact onset of MVFR cigs is still uncertain,
so will keep MVFR TEMPO groups for D10 TAF sites for now. MVFR
ceilings should dissipate by 17Z, giving way to VFR conditions and
southerly winds of 10-15 knots at all TAF sites. There is a very
low chance (15-25%) of isolated thunderstorms in North Central
Texas between 18Z and 03Z, but this activity should remain
northwest of the D10 TRACON.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  97  76  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  72  93  72  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               93  74  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              96  75  98  73  98 /  20   5   0   0   0
McKinney            95  75  97  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   5
Dallas              96  76  98  76  97 /   5   0   0   0   5
Terrell             95  73  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           96  74  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              95  71  95  71  92 /   0   0   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       95  73  98  70  98 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$